Al Gore’s speech to the Commonwealth Club last week was intelligent, but ultimately about tactics, not strategy. Gore believes that Saddam Hussein is a growing threat to the United States and the world–and one that must be dealt with, using force if necessary. But he dislikes the manner and sequence in which the president is conducting policy. That makes for a column, not a campaign. Here is the speech that Al Gore should have given:

“Three weeks ago President Bush addressed the United Nations about the urgent need for the disarmament of Iraq. As one of only 10 Democratic senators who supported the gulf war in 1991, I have long believed that Saddam Hussein is a threat to the region and the world. I fully support the president’s efforts to get United Nations inspectors back into Iraq for unfettered, unconditional inspections.

“But what worries me as much as the Middle East is the Middle West. The American economy is dead in the water and the administration seems not to have noticed. Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill confidently tells us that the economy is poised for a recovery, as he told us six months ago, as he told us a year ago. But the reality is stark. Every day we hear of a new round of layoffs, a new bout of cost-cutting, a new set of economic numbers–all worse than expected. Profits and business investment have fallen more sharply than at any point since the Great Depression. This year the average American household’s net worth will decline for the third year running, which has not happened since World War II. The traditional optimism of Americans is being replaced by nervousness and gloom.

“The key force holding back economic growth today is uncertainty: uncertainty about the future, about the war and about chaos in its wake. The administration’s loose war talk over the summer has made matters much worse. As officials publicly feuded, leaked battle plans and bragged that America would go it alone in this vast undertaking, fears of a costly war with political and economic spillover have made businesses wary of new investment and sent oil prices shooting up. The price of oil has risen 45 percent in the last six months and it is likely to keep going up. Without a war, we have already had an oil shock–a stealth oil shock, whose effects will be felt by the American people over the next year.

“While alienating our democratic allies in Europe and Asia, the administration has spoken of its close relationship with Saudi Arabia and other key oil-producing states. Yet at the OPEC meetings in Osaka last week, these same governments thumbed their noses at America and announced that they would keep oil prices artificially high. Not only is this shortsighted but it is a hostile act against the Western world.

“We need a new economic strategy for America. Our economy is in grave danger of deflation–falling prices, profits and incomes. The first line of defense is the Federal Reserve, which we must hope will do what is necessary. Its own research about the lessons learned from Japan’s mistakes suggests the grave danger of waiting too long and acting too weakly. Second, the secretary of the Treasury should announce that we no longer support a strong dollar. A fall in the value of the dollar would boost American exports and force reform in other countries. Finally, the government must prime the economic pump. As unemployment mounts we must raise unemployment insurance so as to help the more than 8 million Americans who have been stranded in this bust. It is the right thing to do for them and will also act as a powerful stimulus to the economy. Further actions, such as targeted tax relief for middle-class families, should be considered, but within the context of long-term fiscal stability.

“One of the factors that has fed uncertainty is this administration’s lack of credibility on the federal budget. In two years we have gone from record surpluses back to Reagan-era deficits. The president has been undisciplined in both his taxation and his spending policies, raising the prospects of large, structural deficits. The secretary of the Treasury has become a public embarrassment, his every statement causing jitters in the financial markets and anxiety among ordinary Americans. The discipline and sobriety of the Clinton-Gore years has been replaced by reckless ideology.

“Every day that we wait, the crisis worsens, more Americans lose their jobs, their savings and their hope. There are costs to any actions that we will take but there are far greater costs to inaction. God bless you and God bless America.”