In a race that has received scant national attention, Jon Bruning, Nebraska’s 38-year-old Republican attorney general, is challenging Hagel’s bid for re-election to the Senate–by attacking him from the right. Bruning charges that Hagel’s stance on Iraq, as well as his criticism of the president and members of his cabinet (see: Alberto Gonzales), put the incumbent out of touch with the majority of Nebraskans.
“Nebraska is more conservative than the nation as a whole,” Bruning told NEWSWEEK. “Senator Hagel, however, has become more liberal. And for some reason he has an anger to George Bush that is not particularly productive.”
How substantive a threat does Bruning pose? No reliable independent sounding has yet been taken. According to a poll recently commissioned by Bruning’s office, he finds himself 9 percentage points ahead of Hagel in a head-to-head contest. A study undertaken by Nebraska’s Democratic Party has Hagel’s “positive” rating at 51 percent compared to Bruning’s 61.
Hagel’s camp dismissed both sets of data as unreliable and almost certain to change. Bruning, they argued, is an opportunist positioning himself to capitalize should Hagel decide to make a White House run or, perhaps, retire. “Jon Bruning is just an ambitious and aggressive young man and he’s taken a gamble on Senator Hagel not running for re-election,” said Hagel’s political director, Kevin Chapman. “If Senator Hagel does run for re-election, then Jon Bruning will likely step down for the good of the party.” (Bruning’s campaign replies that he is in the race to win, regardless.)
Bruning is not the only Republican challenging an incumbent from the right. At least three other Republican members of Congress–Sen. Gordon Smith of Oregon, Rep. Walter Jones of North Carolina and Rep. Wayne Gilchrest of Maryland, all of whom have been critical of the Bush administration’s handling of the war–find themselves facing conservative primary opponents.
These races point out the difficult questions facing the Republican Party heading into the 2008 campaign. How do candidates address the legacy of the last eight years? How closely should they associate themselves with President Bush? And above all, how should the party position itself on Iraq–given Bush’s abysmal approval ratings, and the public’s serious dissatisfaction with his handling of the war? There were further signs of intraparty tension this week, when Sens. Richard Lugar of Indiana and George Voinovich of Ohio broke with the president and called for a change of course in Iraq.
Antiwar sentiment is also growing in Nebraska, traditionally Republican turf where Democrats must establish strong conservative credentials to have a shot of winning election statewide. Bush carried the state with 66 percent of the vote in 2004. Today, his approval rating, while well above his national numbers, hovers in the mid-40s. Hagel has voted with the president more than any other member of the U.S. Senate, according to a tally done by Congressional Quarterly. But he has also been a vociferous critic of the war, joining many Democrats in calling for a phased troop withdrawal.
Along the way, Hagel has managed to alienate both Nebraska’s right and left. There are state Republicans who resent his criticism of the war–including his statement that impeachment of President Bush is not off the table–and claim not to recognize his brand of conservatism. “In 1996 [when Hagel first ran for Senate] we loved him, we would have taken bullets for the guy,” said Bruning. “I don’t know what happened. Maybe the Senate changed him. But he’s forgotten where he came from.”
Many Democrats, meanwhile, claim that while Hagel may pose as a Republican rebel, his actions don’t match his rhetoric. “He talks a good game and is great on Sunday-morning talk shows,” explained Matt Connealy, executive director of the Nebraska Democratic Party. “But when it comes down to getting something done, he’s not there.”
As a result, Hagel’s popularity on the national stage masks the potential for real political trouble back home.
With more than six months to go before Nebraska’s primary, Hagel has plenty of time to shore up his base. Aides close to the senator say he will likely decide by September whether to retire, run for president or remain in Congress. But Bruning may not be Hagel’s only headache. Mike Johanns, formerly the governor of Nebraska and currently the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, could seek the Republican nomination, while former Democratic senator Bob Kerrey, now president of New York City’s New School, recently conducted a poll to test his viability in seeking the Senate seat.
Last year, another U.S. Senator with national appeal faced a challenge from within his own party, primarily over his stance on the Iraq War. Democratic Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut lost the primary to Ned Lamont, a businessman from Greenwich, before running and winning the general election as an Independent. Would Hagel consider a similar path? “No,” said Chapman, emphatically. “Chuck Hagel is a lifelong conservative Republican. The first vote he ever cast was on top of a tank in Mekong Delta in 1968 and it was for Richard Nixon. And he has remained a Republican ever since.”
