At the weekend, the streets of downtown Port-au-Prince were firmly under the control of more than 1,000 U.S. Marine infantrymen, and the government of interim president Boniface Alexandre started laying the groundwork for a post-Aristide transition that could culminate in the election of a new president and legislature later this year. But there was no evidence that Philippe’s fighters were surrendering their guns–and in the absence of a concerted U.S. and French effort to round them up, there was nothing to reassure Haitians that there wouldn’t be a new bloodbath in the coming months.

The Bush administration does not want Philippe or any of his cohorts to hold any leadership posts in a new government. “They do not have a role in this [transition] process,” says State Department spokesman Richard Boucher. One of the top rebel lieutenants is a convicted mass murderer, and Philippe himself has been implicated in drug trafficking. Between 8 and 10 percent of all the cocaine entering the United States is believed to come through Haiti. According to one of Aristide’s former cabinet ministers, Cap Haitien was a favorite port of call for leading Colombian cartels in the late 1990s, when Philippe was the city’s police chief. Drug-fueled corruption has been widespread in the national police force. “By the end of the Aristide era Haiti was permeated by illegal drug money and corruption was a significant problem,” says Robert Charles, the State Department’s senior official on drug matters.

Tim Carney, a former U.S. ambassador to Haiti, says disarming the rebels and other assorted thugs must be a priority. Before Haiti can overcome its history of poverty, violence and unrest, he adds, the country’s people must become less focused on personalities and develop a sense of the common good. “Haitians don’t tend to compromise,” says Carney. “There is a winner-take-all mentality, as if politics and development is a zero-sum game.” He sees a spark of hope in the civilian opposition that initiated the revolt against Aristide. Still, he and other experts warn that Haiti’s toxic mix of poverty, drug trafficking and corruption could portend instability long after U.S. troops leave the country three months from now.