Here are five props that caught our eye as good betting opportunities:
MORE RUSH YARDS Jamaal Charles (+105) Marshawn Lynch (-125)
Assuming both stay healthy, Lynch will likely get more carries than Charles, but the latter is more explosive (at least 5.0 yards per carry every season; Lynch has topped 4.7 ypc only once) and doesn’t have nearly as many miles on the tires (2,469 career touches, including 385 last year, for Lynch; 1,524 for Charles, including 240 last year). Charles is the better bet to stay healthy, and he could easily top Lynch even if both play in the same amount of games, which he did in 2013. Getting plus-money on Charles is a bonus.
MORE RECEIVING YARDS Odell Beckham Jr. (-125) Sammy Watkins (+105)
Beckham is a favorite here – and for good reason. Beckham had over 300 more receiving yards than Watkins last year despite playing in four fewer games. With Victor Cruz returning, Beckham probably won’t put up as many yards as he did last year, and Watkins should improve on his rookie season, but with Buffalo making no significant upgrades at quarterback and bringing in run-happy Rex Ryan as head coach, it’s tough to imagine Watkins making up enough ground to pass Beckham.
MORE PASSING YARDS Andrew Luck (-115) Drew Brees (-105)
With the offseason trade of Jimmy Graham, the Saints seem to be transitioning to more of a run-oriented offense. Brees will still throw a lot, but Luck could easily throw more – and he now has a superior (and more explosive) stable of receivers.
HIGHEST INDIVIDUAL RUSHING TD TOTAL OVER 13.5 (-110) UNDER 13.5 (-110)
Over the past five seasons, there have been only four instances of a player having more than 13 touchdowns, none of which have occurred since 2012 and one of which was Cam Newton in 2011. The trend is clear, and the smart money is on the UNDER.
WILL THERE BE A 500-YARD PASSING GAME? YES (-275) NO (+235)
Another history lesson: There has been at least one 500-yard passer in a game in each of the past four seasons, including three in 2012 – and that list doesn’t include Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck or Matt Ryan. There are enough explosive receivers (and bad defenses) in the NFL now that it’s not as difficult for one QB to have one monster game. Betting on YES seems foolish given the odds, but perhaps the main point here is that it’s more foolish to bet on NO.
NFL PROPS, 2015-16 SEASON, WILLIAM HILL U.S.
WHO WILL HAVE MORE SACKS?
JUSTIN HOUSTON -110 JJ WATT -110
VON MILLER -135 CLAY MATTHEWS +115
MARIO WILLIAMS +105 ELVIS DUMERVIL -125
NDAMUKONG SUH -125 MARCELL DAREUS +105
WHO WILL HAVE MORE TACKLES?
LUKE KUECHLY -110 LAVONTE DAVID -110
VONTAZE BURFICT -120 PAUL POSLUSZNY +100
WHO WILL HAVE MORE RUSH YARDS?
LESEAN MCCOY -115 DEMARCO MURRAY -105
ALFRED MORRIS +100 EDDIE LACY -120
JAMAAL CHARLES +105 MARSHAWN LYNCH -125
TODD GURLEY +110 MELVIN GORDON -130
WHO WILL HAVE MORE PASS YARDS?
ANDREW LUCK -115 DREW BREES -105
MATT RYAN -110 BEN ROETHLISBERGER -110
ELI MANNING +130 PEYTON MANNING -150
PHILIP RIVERS +110 AARON RODGERS -130
RYAN TANNEHILL +115 MATTHEW STAFFORD -135
WHO WILL HAVE MORE PASSING AND RUSH YARDS
RUSSELL WILSON -120 CAM NEWTON +100
WHO WILL HAVE MORE RECEIVING YARDS
JULIO JONES -120 ANTONIO BROWN +100
DEMARYIUS THOMAS -105 AJ GREEN -115
T.Y HILTON -110 JORDY NELSON -110
ODELL BECKHAM JR -125 SAMMY WATKINS +105
DEZ BRYANT -120 ALSHON JEFFREY +100
JIMMY GRAHAM +105 ROB GRONKOWSKI -125
WILL THERE BE INDIVIDUAL 500-YD PASSING GAME?
YES -275 NO +235
NUMBER OF INDIVIDUAL 200-YD RUSHING GAMES
OVER 3.5 -110 UNDER 3.5 -110
NUMBER OF INDIVIDUAL 200-YD RECEIVING GAMES
OVER 7.5 +105 UNDER 7.5 -125
HIGHEST INDIVIDUAL SACK TOTAL
OVER 20.5 -110 UNDER 20.5 -110
HIGHEST INDIVIDUAL INTERCEPTION TOTAL
OVER 7.5 -125 UNDER 7.5 +105
HIGHEST INDIVIDUAL TD PASSES TOTAL
OVER 42.5 -110 UNDER 42.5 -110
HIGHEST INDIVIDUAL RUSHING TD TOTAL
OVER 13.5 -110 UNDER 13.5 -110
HIGHEST INDIVIDUAL RECEIVING TD TOTAL OVER 15.5 -110 UNDER 15.5 -110
LONGEST FIELD GOAL MADE
OVER 60.5 yards -110 UNDER 60.5 yards -110
LONGEST TD SCORED
OVER 94.5 -110 UNDER 94.5 -110
HIGHEST INDIVIDUAL RECEPTION TOTAL
OVER 121.5 -110 UNDER 121.5 -110
HIGHEST INDIVIDUAL FIELD GOAL TOTAL OVER 36.5 -110 UNDER 36.5 -110
WILL ANY TEAM HAVE 14 OR MORE REGULAR-SEASON WINS? YES +140 NO -160
WILL ANY TEAM HAVE 14 OR MORE REGULAR-SEASON LOSES YES +175 NO -200
MOST PASSING YDS LUCK 7/2 BREES 11/2 RODGERS 6/1 PEYTON MANNING 7/1 STAFFORD 8/1 RYAN 10/1 ELI MANNING 15/1 RIVERS 15/1 ROETHLISBERGER 15/1 ROMO 15/1 BRADY 25/1 TANNEHILL 25/1 FLACCO 25/1 PALMER 30/1 WILSON 30/1 DALTON 40/1 NEWTON 40/1 CUTLER 50/1 GRIFFIN 60/1 FIELD 10/1
MOST REC YARDS CALVIN JOHNSON 5/1 JULIO JONES 6/1 BROWN 6/1 THOMAS 8/1 GREEN 17/2 HILTON 10/1 BRYANT 10/1 NELSON 10/1 JEFFREY 15/1 BECKHAM 15/1 JACKSON D 25/1 WATKINS 25/1 COBB 25/1 GRONKOWSKI 40/1 MARSHALL 40/1 FITZGERALD 50/1 GRAHAM 50/1 TATE 60/1 COOPER 75/1 FIELD 6/1
MOST RUSH YARDS PETERSON 9/2 MURRAY 6/1 MCCOY 8/1 FOSTER 8/1 CHARLES 8/1 LYNCH 8/1 BELL 10/1 MCFADDEN 10/1 LACY 12/1 FORSETT 18/1 MORRIS 20/1 HILL 20/1 FORTE 20/1 MILLER 30/1 MURRAY 30/1 GORDON 30/1 ELLINGTON 50/1 GURLEY 50/1 MARTIN 75/1 FIELD +325
MOST TDs SCORED PETERSON 11/2 LYNCH 11/2 CALVIN JOHNSON 8/1 BRYANT 10/1 CHARLES 10/1 BELL 10/1 FOSTER 12/1 LACY 12/1 NELSON 15/1 BECKHAM 15/1 ANTONIO BROWN 18/1 GRONKOWSKI 20/1 MURRAY 25/1 EVANS 30/1 THOMAS 30/1 MCCOY 40/1 GREEN 40/1 FORTE 40/1 MORRIS 50/1 FIELD 3/1
Matt Lutovsky is an editor for Sporting News Fantasy. Read more of his work here and follow @MLutovsky on Twitter.
