title: “Hard Sell” ShowToc: true date: “2023-01-01” author: “Renee Harrison”
title: “Hard Sell” ShowToc: true date: “2022-12-16” author: “Katherine Rodriguez”
Even that minimal goal-getting NATO leaders to sign on to the seemingly vague principles of “new threats” and “defensive systems”-will be a challenge. And there isn’t much time to meet it: The formal agenda for the summit is to be settled at two upcoming meetings of NATO foreign and defense ministers. “We have six weeks to the summit,” says one senior Administration official “That’s probably too short, but we don’t have a choice.”
The administration believes that if U.S. allies will sign on to the principle of defenses, then Russia, losing international leverage, is likelier to acquiesce as well. U.S. officials are encouraged that President Vladimir Putin, in a change of tone, has welcomed Bush’s plan to consult with his Kremlin counterpart. Russia has already sent NATO a rudimentary outline of a possible Europe-based missile defense system which Russia claims it would help build and run.
The Bush emissaries will argue to their European counterparts that the Administration’s new approach has an inner logic. Among the ideas they will outline:
The new concept of nuclear deterrence that would allow deep cuts in U.S. strategic forces, hopefully in parallel with Russia. As it moves away from the Cold War’s strategy of “mutual-assured destruction,” the United States would consider taking its remaining arsenal of missiles off hair-trigger alert. The United States would be willing to withdraw most of its short-range nuclear weapons-gravity bombs delivered by aircraft-from Europe. In exchange, the Americans also want deep cuts in Russia’s vast arsenal of tactical nukes still deployed along its borders. The team will outline threats the United States foresees during the next 20 years from proliferating nuclear, chemical, and bio weapons on long-range missiles. Bush aides will argue that only a multi-layered system of land, sea, air, and possibly even space-based defenses can protect from these threats. They will pledge to consult with allies, Russia and China before deciding on any systems. The emissaries will argue that the 1972 ABM Treaty stands in the way of this new strategy, but will pledge that rather than tearing it up, they will negotiate step-by-step changes. The first will be to permit research and development of defenses. Further changes, to allow deployment, would come later. To sweeten the pot, the emissaries will dangle the promise of high-tech contracts to nations-including Russia-that endorse the idea of missile defense.
That’s a multi-billion dollar bonanza. Says one high-level official: “I don’t think any one is passing this out as a dangle point…but it has a certain attractiveness.” Just how attractive remains to be seen.
