Line: Oklahoma City -3, Total: 207
Guard Russell Westbrook is a game-time decision after missing the last 27 games. Oklahoma City more than survived at 20-7 SU and 16-11 ATS over that span, with MVP-favorite Kevin Durant leading the way at 35 points per game.
The Thunder (43-12 SU, 32-23 ATS) didn’t need Westbrook when they traveled to South Beach on Jan. 29. Durant scored 33 points, as the team fell behind 22-4 and turned a 30-21 first-quarter deficit into a 112-95 win (as 4-point dogs). The Heat were 6-0 SU and ATS in the previous six meetings between the teams, dating back to the 2012 NBA Finals.
Oklahoma City is very well-rested for this game, not playing since last Thursday. Should he suit up, there will be an adjustment integrating Westbrook back into the lineup, and emerging young guns, Reggie Jackson and Jeremy Lamb, will have to deal with getting less minutes.
The Heat (38-14 SU, 25-27 ATS) started the second half of their season with a 117-106 win at Dallas on Tuesday. They covered the spread as 2.5-point favorites and are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six away.
LeBron James scored a season-high 42 points last game on 16-of-23 shooting from the field. He hasn’t given up hope for a third-straight MVP award and needs to make a statement against Durant. Dwyane Wade has been dealing with a foot issue and took just seven shots against Dallas. He needs to be aggressive to counter the Thunder scoring attack (105 PPG, ranked 6th).
Miami has been an underdog just four times this year, going 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS.
The Linemakers’ lean: Miami, which covered just four of 11 games heading into the All-Star break, will put any complacency aside tonight, as they seek revenge for the 17-point loss at home to the Thunder in January. The Heat’s overall spread record indicates they’re overvalued, but they’re covering at a 17-11 clip on the road. They also thrive in the underdog role, and LeBron takes his game up a notch when facing marquee opponents, especially on the road. We’ll take the points with Miami tonight.
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