Bhutto can’t be written off. She is a talented, hands-on leader who knows how to mobilize the political machinery–even at great distances. From her three-bedroom apartment in central London’s tony Queensgate, Bhutto plots her return. She meets a nonstop stream of visitors, with party officials and retired Pakistani military officers among their ranks. She spends countless hours on the phone and at her Dell desktop computer communicating with party stalwarts all over Pakistan. Her aides say she is in touch by e-mail with some 5,000 party workers every week. All that hard work has paid off. Despite her long absence, her Pakistan People’s Party remains the best-organized political force in Pakistan. “She’s done a masterful job in holding the party together long distance,” says Samina Ahmed, director of the International Crisis Group in Islamabad. “In a free and fair election the PPP still stands a good chance of winning a simple majority.”
Not if Musharraf can help it. But then again, Bhutto keeps dodging his punches. Last week her advisers feared the party would be disqualified because of one of Musharraf’s new, so-called Benazir-specific election laws. As the deadline for party registration approached, Bhutto’s inner court huddled for a three-hour conference call that ran until 5 in the morning Pakistan time. In the end, they decided that Bhutto would return to Pakistan before the elections, most likely in September on a commercial flight to Lahore, though the exact date of her arrival has not been fixed. They also agreed to form a new party, called the Pakistan People’s Party Parliamentarians, headed by a top aide, that would be the PPP’s alter ego in the elections, with Bhutto acting as its “political guide.” That way her party could contest the elections under a different name and leader, with Bhutto still calling the shots.
If she does return, campaign headquarters will probably be run from her jail cell. Musharraf has made it clear that Bhutto will be arrested to serve her sentence for skipping out on her 1997 court date. Bhutto dismisses the prospect, saying she can lead the party to victory even from prison. She is confident of her grass-roots support and Musharraf’s political weakness. Her party did well in local elections a year ago and effectively led the boycott of last April’s rigged referendum that confirmed Musharraf in office for the next five years. Meanwhile Musharraf’s approval ratings have declined, especially since he proposed constitutional amendments granting him sweeping new powers. “People are tired of seeing Musharraf in uniform,” says Ayaz Amir, a respected political columnist. “Many feel that anything would be better than the military straitjacket that Musharraf is tailoring for the country.”
But Musharraf has been doing some politicking of his own. It is believed that he has struck a bargain with Nawaz Sharif, the discredited two-time former prime minister, to gain his support in the October elections. Under the suspected deal, the military will allow the exiled Shahbaz Sharif, Nawaz’s younger brother and head of his political party, to return to Pakistan for the elections. In exchange, Shahbaz will steer his brother’s loyalists into the pro-Musharraf camp and oppose Bhutto. “If the military has successfully co-opted Shahbaz, then the generals must be feeling pretty good,” says the ICG’s Ahmed.
Still, Bhutto is far from finished. Her return is sure to cause a nationwide buzz and energize party workers. “Her presence, even in jail, will be a powerful symbol and galvanize the party,” says Ahmed. But others argue that the mistakes from her own rule, including corruption charges she denies, have diminished her stature. “There’s no rush of sympathy for Benazir,” says columnist Amir. “She’s no longer seen as a savior or Joan of Arc.”
The only thing that is certain is that Bhutto and Musharraf seem headed for a showdown. “This will be anybody’s election,” predicts Syeda Abida Hussain, a veteran politician and former Sharif supporter. For the time being, it’s anybody’s guess who will be left standing.
